The political landscape in Scotland has undergone considerable shifts following the confirmed departure of Nicola Sturgeon from Scottish Politics at the Holyrood election in May next year. The implications of her exit and the evolving dynamics within the party present an opportunity for a fascinating examination of contemporary Scottish politics. This article analyses the trajectory of SNP during Sturgeon's leadership, the challenges it now faces, and the broader context in which these changes occur.
TL:DR – The SNP has entered a challenging phase following Nicola Sturgeon's decision not to seek re-election with scrutiny on its internal dynamics, the ongoing investigation surrounding the party's finances, and the rising political tides. The implications for independence and governance will require careful navigation as the next elections approach, particularly in the context of internal dissent and external pressures. It is essential for supporters and critics alike to engage thoughtfully on these issues, pushing for a more vibrant political discourse.
Sturgeon's legacy and the idea of Sturgeonism
Nicola Sturgeon’s tenure as the First Minister of Scotland undoubtedly marked a notable chapter in Scottish politics. As a politician who championed the cause of Scottish independence, her brand of politics—often dubbed 'Sturgeonism'—exemplified a progressive yet pragmatic approach. In many respects, her political strategy emphasised the maintenance of the SNP's electoral grip while navigating the complexities of a divided public opinion regarding independence. However, a cursory examination of her tenure often misses the historical context and broader implications of her leadership on Scotland's democratic fabric.
Critics and supporters often portrayed Sturgeon as either a "hero" or a "villain," simplifying her political narrative into binary extremes. Such characterisations frequently neglect the nuanced reality of governing in a coalition-dominated political environment, where maintaining party unity was as crucial as advancing an independent Scotland agenda. The emergence of 'Sturgeonism' reflected a blend of traditional Scottish nationalism and modern progressive ideals, focusing heavily on social justice yet simultaneously treading lightly around issues of economic sovereignty, notably in the aftermath of the 2014 independence referendum.
Moving forward, the question remains whether the SNP can sustain this duality—or if a fundamental shift in approach is required to engage a disillusioned electorate. The ideological underpinnings of Sturgeon’s leadership may come under scrutiny as the party challenges itself to rediscover its roots while also redefining its future trajectory. It remains critical that discussions around her legacy extend beyond mere personal narratives to embrace the ramifications of her policies and the shifting tide of public sentiment.
The current political climate and the SNP's challenges
The SNP faces a tumultuous political landscape, particularly in the wake of the police investigation known as Operation Branchform, which has tarnished the party's image and ability to govern effectively. This investigation pertains to allegations that party funds were misappropriated, triggering a crisis of confidence within the SNP and prompting declining support among Scottish voters. The prolonged uncertainty and public scrutiny experienced by the party has significantly affected its electoral capital, exemplified by its recent losses in the 2024 general election.
As the party navigates these challenges, the appointment of Humza Yousaf as leader presented both a blessing and a burden. While he had the opportunity to chart a new course for the party, he had to contend with an electorate weary of scandal and internal strife. Furthermore, the rising presence of opposition forces, particularly from Scottish Labour and the Conservatives, could further complicate the SNP's efforts to regain electoral footing. The coalition with the Scottish Greens, once a source of strength, also came under fire, resulting in internal frictions and eventual dissolution
Yousaf's replacement after failing to navigate this fractured political environment, by John Swinney, an old guard member of the SNP from the era before Sturgeonism, didn't really move the needle on SNP fortunes, since he was arguably just a continuity leader while all the various crises blow over or are resolved.
Add to this mix the growing influence of Reform UK, which has started to siphon off votes that traditionally would gravitate towards the SNP—particularly among pro-independence supporters disillusioned by what they perceive as the SNP's failure to deliver on promises.
The SNP needs to find a way to address the concerns of both independence-supporting constituents and those who may be drawn to alternative party platforms.
The viability of independence in a changing landscape
The potential for a renewed independence referendum has not diminished, especially as noted by leading pollster Sir John Curtice's assertion that a pro-independence majority in the next Holyrood Election could reopen debates about Scotland's status within the UK. Nonetheless, for this to occur, the SNP will need to cultivate a compelling narrative that reconnects with Scottish citizens frustrated by the perceived stagnation in the independence discourse. Yousaf’s leadership will be under intense scrutiny to articulate a cohesive vision that resonates with voters beyond mere slogans.
In recent months, there have been indications that public appetite for independence remains fluctuating, influenced by the broader political climate across the UK. With Labour’s resurgence under Sir Keir Starmer and the counter-narrative surrounding governance effectiveness—particularly around issues of healthcare and public services—support for the SNP may continue to fluctuate. The challenge looms large for Yousaf and the party to differentiate their vision of independence from Labour's policies steering away from centralisation, which many view as in opposition to Scotland’s unique identity.
Strategically, this necessitates an honest appraisal of the SNP’s journey since the 2014 referendum, including lessons learned, missteps taken, and the necessary recalibration in messaging that could rekindle support. The path toward independence must now be framed not only through the lens of national identity but also in addressing tangible economic realities and grievances faced by Scottish citizens. A transparent dialogue centring on the pragmatic benefits of independence, alongside a detailed blueprint for a post-independence Scotland, could reinvigorate the discourse that has languished since the highs of 2014.
The necessity for an honest debate about governance
Crucially, the future of the SNP and the independence cause hinges on the necessity for robust public engagement and meaningful debate about government strategy and policy execution. In the past, the SNP's heavy reliance on a largely pro-independence electorate felt at odds with the principles of genuine democratic engagement, particularly when it came to addressing dissenting voices. Sturgeon’s government often found itself in a position that straddled pragmatism and idealism, leading to accusations that their approach sometimes veered into authoritarianism.
This inward focus requires urgent redirection towards outward engagement to foster a landscape where differing opinions are welcomed, and meaningful discussions can flourish. Open forums for discourse, public consultations, and participatory democracy practices might mitigate public disaffection and make inroads with constituencies that felt sidelined. Now, more than ever, an empathetic stance must dictate the SNP's approach to governance with an eye on generating inclusive processes that are reflective of Scotland's diverse demographics and socio-economic realities.
Moreover, grappling with Scotland's socioeconomic challenges—such as healthcare, education, and economic growth—entails not just a retort to Labour ideology but a unique model that aligns Scottish circumstances with a vision of a more autonomous political framework. If the SNP is to flower anew, it should reflect on the need to both validate the past and charge confidently into the future, clear-eyed about the responsibilities of government without abandoning the aspirations that sparked the independence movement.
Conclusion
In summary, Scottish politics has entered a new phase following the unveiling of challenges that have beset the SNP in the wake of Nicola Sturgeon's leadership. Her political legacy will be subjected to scrutiny as she departs the scene and more new leadership emerges to navigate a complex landscape characterised by investigative pressure and growing opposition. While the prospect of independence retains some momentum through electoral shifts, the SNP must work vehemently to re-establish public faith in its vision and governance.
In light of these realities, it becomes imperative for party members and supporters to engage with the electorate authentically, as well as to recalibrate their messaging and offer a substantive narrative on independence. As Scotland approaches upcoming elections, the integration of internal cohesion, transparency, and clear strategic priorities will be paramount to the SNP’s survival and relevance. The need for a constructive and open debate has never been greater, and party leaders must recognise that their future hinges on reconnecting with the electorate meaningfully. Indeed, it is time for Scottish politics to evolve and embrace renewed dialogues that will pave the way for Scotland's democratic future, whatever that may hold.